Rennes, OM and Lyon target Europa League 2026-27

Rennes, Marseille and Lyon enter the Europa League phase with a clear route to the knockout rounds, although their expected paths differ. Rennes are projected to finish seventh and qualify directly for the last 16, while Marseille and Lyon are placed 10th and 13th respectively, which would send both into the play-offs.

Each club will play eight matches against different opponents. The top eight teams advance directly to the round of 16, while positions nine through 24 lead to a play-off. Teams outside the top 24 are eliminated. A total of 15 points is considered sufficient for a direct qualification place. Reaching the knockout phase through the play-offs should require between nine and 10 points, depending on the final standings and goal difference.

Recent thresholds offer some context. Roma needed 16 points and a plus-seven goal difference for direct qualification last season, while 10 points with a minus-two difference secured a top-24 place in 2024-25. The previous campaign required only nine points with a minus-two difference.

Rennes have a 42.8% projected chance of finishing in the top eight and a 91% chance of reaching the top 24. Marseille’s figures are 35.9% and 87.5%, with Lyon at 30.6% and 83.9%. Marseille are given the highest title probability at 6.3%, ahead of Lyon on 4.8% and Rennes on 3.7%.