France Rugby Face Tough World Cup Route to Semi-finals

France’s hopes of reaching the World Cup final could depend on surviving a likely semi-final against South Africa or New Zealand. The projected route would again place the French team on the side of the draw containing two of the strongest southern-hemisphere powers, three years after South Africa eliminated them in the 2023 quarter-finals on home soil.

The expanded tournament will feature 24 teams rather than 16. France’s pool includes Japan, the United States and Samoa, giving Fabien Galthié’s team a more manageable opening phase than in 2023, when New Zealand were among their group opponents. Finishing top would bring a meeting with the runners-up from Pool D, potentially the loser of Scotland versus Ireland.

The quarter-final path would then appear to lead towards the second-placed team from Pool C, likely Fiji, or Pool F, where Wales and Tonga are expected to compete for position. Argentina or England could also enter that section if either fails to meet expectations in the pool stage.

The main danger comes beyond the quarter-finals. If the anticipated hierarchy holds, the winner of a heavyweight South Africa-New Zealand quarter-final would face France in the last four. Japan coach Eddie Jones has backed New Zealand’s chances of reaching the final and considers that quarter-final too evenly balanced to call, underlining the scale of France’s potential obstacle in Australia.